Azhar Saeed
Every year since 1995, the world’s governments have gathered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for what are formally called the Conference of the Parties, or COPs. These meetings are the only universal platform where nearly every country comes together to negotiate the rules, targets, and financing mechanisms for tackling climate change. Over the decades, COPs have built the architecture of global climate governance, from the Kyoto Protocol’s binding emission targets for industrialized nations to the Paris Agreement’s universal commitment to keep warming “well below” two degrees Celsius, ideally 1.5°C. COPs matter because they set norms, mobilize finance, and create accountability frameworks that ripple far beyond the negotiation halls. While global emissions have yet to bend decisively downward, the agreements reached in these meetings shape national policies, unlock funding, and drive shifts in technology and markets.
COP28 in Dubai in 2023 was notable for operationalizing the long-awaited Loss and Damage Fund, a breakthrough for climate-vulnerable nations who have long argued that the world’s poorest, who contribute least to global warming, should receive support to recover from climate disasters. Pledges reached about USD 575 million on day one. The conference also concluded the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, calling for tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and for the first time in COP history explicitly “transitioning away” from fossil fuels. COP29 in Baku in 2024 shifted the spotlight to finance, with countries agreeing on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), a commitment by developed countries to mobilize at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035, with the ambition of reaching USD 1.3 trillion annually from public and private sources combined. It also finalized operational rules for international carbon markets under Article 6 and saw the Loss and Damage Fund move from concept to operational status.
Pakistan was more than a bystander in these developments. At COP28, it secured a seat on the Loss and Damage Fund’s Board, giving it a voice in how this critical mechanism will be implemented, and launched the “Recharge Pakistan” project, a USD 77.8 million nature-based adaptation initiative in the Indus Basin, funded by the Green Climate Fund, WWF and other partners. In the broader negotiations, Pakistan’s diplomats pushed for stronger finance language and recognition of fossil fuel phase-down. At COP29, the delegation was part of the coalition pressing for a high NCQG figure, aligning with other climate-vulnerable states. Domestically, it unveiled Policy Guidelines for Trading in Carbon Markets, signaling readiness to tap into the newly operational Article 6 system, and signed the Declaration on Children, Youth, and Climate Action, pledging to integrate these priorities into its upcoming Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0.
The trouble with COP “wins” is that they are only as good as the follow-through. On the global stage, pledges to the Loss and Damage Fund remain far short of the needs, with little clarity on disbursement speed or the balance between grants and loans. The NCQG is an ambition, not a binding obligation, and its roadmap is still to be written. For Pakistan, the follow-up has been mixed. On the positive side, it submitted its first Biennial Transparency Report and its Third National Communication in mid-2025, enhancing credibility. Consultations for NDC 3.0, the next five-year climate plan, are underway, and the National Adaptation Plan is in place. The Pakistan Climate Change Authority has been established, though leadership appointments have been slow. Yet, key gaps remain: the updated NDC has not yet been filed with the UN; there is no publicly announced, costed project portfolio to access the NCQG or the Loss and Damage Fund; and Article 6 frameworks have not translated into concrete bilateral deals.
COP30, set for November 2025 in Belém, Brazil, will focus on moving from promises to delivery. For Pakistan, this is an opportunity to not only advance its own climate resilience but to lead on behalf of the wider coalition of climate-vulnerable countries. Right now, the country is partly ready: it has the transparency and institutional basics in place but lacks the finance-ready portfolio and the negotiating choreography to fully capitalize on the moment. In the two months remaining, the government should focus on measures that are ambitious yet practical. Finalizing and publicly launching NDC 3.0, even if some sectoral details remain indicative, would ensure Pakistan enters COP30 with an official, credible target. Selecting three or four mature projects from the National Adaptation Plan and packaging them for donor discussion would provide a visible and diverse finance portfolio. One or two well-prepared Loss and Damage Fund proposals with strong political resonance, such as rebuilding critical health or education infrastructure in flood-affected districts, should be prioritized for presentation in Belém. On carbon markets, Pakistan should at least complete its authorization and tracking procedures and name a partner country with whom discussions are advanced, signaling serious intent under Article 6. The delegation should be well briefed, with a short internal pack covering key talking points, top asks, and red lines to ensure consistent messaging. Planning two or three high-impact pavilion events on themes where Pakistan can credibly lead, such as climate-resilient recovery from mega-floods or adaptation finance for delta regions, would help draw donor and media attention. Finally, aligning with like-minded developing countries to present a joint stance on grant-based finance and equitable NCQG implementation would amplify Pakistan’s influence beyond its own national interests.
If Pakistan goes to Belém with just attendance and speeches, it will return largely empty-handed. But if it arrives with a sharpened plan, credible targets, and a handful of investable projects, it can secure tangible deals and strengthen its role as a standard-bearer for the climate-vulnerable world.
